Tuesday, December 26, 2017

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Friday, December 22, 2017


Lawrence Textile Strike, 1912 (The bosses have never raised wages without organized worker pressure)
(Image by binghamton library archives)
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By Dave Lindorff

There is a Big Lie underlying the $1.5-trillion Trump/Republican Congressional tax bill. That lie -- the kind that is so brazen its purveyors hope it will simply be accepted as truth -- is that when corporations get their big tax break, they will pass much of it on to workers in the form of higher wages, and perhaps to consumers in the form of lower prices.
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How do I know it's a Big Lie? Basic economics and history.
Let's take care of the consumer economics argument first. Prices in the US, at least in those parts of the economy that are still competitive, are based on the law of supply and demand. Anyone selling a product or service will charge a price that maximizes profits, and that price is determined by buyer demand. Up and down the chain from suppliers to manufacturers to dstributors to retailers, this system works itself into the final product offered to consumers. At no point in that chain does management say, "Hey, we're paying lower taxes this year. We should cut the price on our widgets and pass the benefits along." Why would they? They've already learned what customers are willing to pay for their widgets, and know the magic point where a higher price starts to reduce demand to the point that it is counter-productive, and they've also learned how much cutting the price will increase sales and where further cuts just mean selling the same number of widgets but at a lower price. And those two boundary points don't change just because taxes -- a cost of doing business -- get lower. Far better to pocket that extra money for the benefit of management or for the shareholders.
But what about wages? There's this faery tale being told by Republicans and by President Trump (a businessman known for being tight-assed when it comes to paying staff, and even for stiffing people whenever possible, besides for grabbing p*ssy when available) that if businesses got a big tax break, they'd use at least some of it to offer their employees higher wages.
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Does anyone really believe that? If that were the case, why would the corporate world and outfits like the US Chamber of Commerce be fighting tooth and nail as they have been against every effort in cities and states across the country, and in Congress, to raise in the pathetic $7.25/hour minimum wage (a wage that has not gone up since back in 2009 at the depths of the Great Recession!)? The truth is corporate America loves the starvation level of the minimum wage because they use various taxpayer-funded welfare programs -- Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Food Stamps, WIC and the like -- to actually subsidize their workforce for them so they don't need to offer workers a living wage.
But more importantly, if corporate managers and owners really cared about the shamelessly low wages paid to their workers, why would they for the last several decades have been aggressively lobbying to get the federal government to weaken labor laws as they have done so they could essentially crush the US labor movement, which today represents only 6.4% of private sector workers. That unionization rate compares to 35% of workers back in the mid-1950s, at a time when most union jobs were in the private sector -- and when blue-collar workers were entering the middle class in droves. Now most remaining union jobs are in the public sector -- federal, state and municipal -- where the rate of unionization is still 34.4%. But public sector workers comprise such a small group over all that when combined, the unionization rate of all US workers in 2016 was a record low 10.7%, representing in total 14.6 million workers. And that is a smaller actual number of unionized workers than the number in 1983, the first year comparable data to today's count was available, when a total of 17.7 million workers were in a union. But note that the total US population today is 27% greater than it was 35 years ago.
A 50-year uninterrupted year-on-year decline in unionization has been proceeding, by the way, despite polls that have consistently shown that most workers, when asked, say they would like to have a union representing them if they could get one. Despite generally negative media coverage of labor unions, even today according to the Gallup organization , 61 percent of Americans say they are in favor of labor unions, compared to 33% who oppose them. Clearly, if federal and state labor laws were not stacked against workers, who today (thanks to the efforts of both Republicans and Democrats in Congress and statehouses) can easily be fired for union organizing activity with no serious penalties on employers for doing so, unionization rates among American workers would be vastly higher than they are.
Trump, in his Monday speech outlining his National Security Strategy, claimed that his election had returned the governance of America to "the people," and that it would now be acting in their interest. If that were so, a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll conducted this year which found 54% of workers saying that if they could have a union in their workplace they would want to have one argues he and his Congressional lickspittles should be calling for labor law reform to make it easier to form a union and harder for employers to block organizing or to refuse to bargain.
Unions in the US, while they do engage in politics, exist primarily for one reason: to give workers bargaining power so they can get the boss to pay them better wages. Of course they defend workers against harassment on the job, fight for workplace safety and better working conditions too, but the big thing is using collective power to force employers to part with some of their profits to pay them better. And that is precisely why capitalists hate unions.
I laughed out loud when I was listening to a report on NPR's breezy "Marketplace" program host Kai Ryssdal did a piece on the "mystery" of why essentially "full employment" in the US was not leading to a rise in wages. The always cheery Ryssdal said that outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues professed themselves "puzzled" at this situation.
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Really? Why the mystery? If a significant percentage of the workforce no longer are in unions, where is the impetus to compel greedy capitalists to part with any of their record profits to raise wages? The mystery is why anyone would believe that Yellen and her colleagues are genuinely mystified.
And yet, I challenge anyone to find a serious discussion of this in the corporate media, where nobody is pointing out the reality that at no time in history have capitalists willingly parted with any of their profits to raise worker compensation unless forced to by worker demands, and nobody is pointing out that the claim that "tax cuts pay for themselves" was already tried and exposed as a fraud during the Reagan administration when it was known as "supply-side theory."
So back to the Big Lie in the 2018 Tax Bill.
There is going to be no gain in wages as a result of passage of this outrage of a tax "reform" bill. And that means it's really all just a big wet-kiss transfer of public funds to the rich and one which, far from "paying for itself through new economic growth" as the Trump claim goes, will just end up adding another $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit, while further widening the nation's unprecedented income chasm.

How the baby boomers — not millennials — screwed America

“The boomers inherited a rich, dynamic country and have gradually bankrupted it."

Hippies dancing during an anti-war demonstration staged by the Spring Mobilization Committee to End the War in Vietnam at Golden Gate Park’s Kezar Stadium on April 15, 1967.
Ralph Crane/The LIFE Picture Collection via Getty Images
Everyone likes to bash millennials. We’re spoiled, entitled, and hopelessly glued to our smartphones. We demand participation trophies, can’t find jobs, and live with our parents until we’re 30. You know the punchlines by now.
But is the millennial hate justified? Have we dropped the generational baton, or was it a previous generation, the so-called baby boomers, who actually ruined everything?
That’s the argument Bruce Gibney makes in his book A Generation of Sociopaths: How the Baby Boomers Betrayed America. The boomers, according to Gibney, have committed “generational plunder,” pillaging the nation’s economy, repeatedly cutting their own taxes, financing two wars with deficits, ignoring climate change, presiding over the death of America’s manufacturing core, and leaving future generations to clean up the mess they created.
I spoke to Gibney about these claims, and why he thinks the baby boomers have wrecked America.
A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows.

Sean Illing

Who are the baby boomers?

Bruce Gibney

The baby boomers are conventionally defined as people born between 1946 and 1964. But I focus on the first two-thirds of boomers because their experiences are pretty homogeneous: They were raised after the war and so have no real experience of trauma or the Great Depression or even any deprivation at all. More importantly, they never experienced the social solidarity that unfolded during war time and that helped produce the New Deal.
But it’s really the white middle-class boomers who exemplify all the awful characteristics and behaviors that have defined this generation. They became a majority of the electorate in the early ’80s, and they fully consolidated their power in Washington by January 1995. And they’ve basically been in charge ever since.

Sean Illing

So how have they broken the country?

Bruce Gibney

Well, the damage done to the social fabric is pretty self-evident. Just look around and notice what’s been done. On the economic front, the damage is equally obvious, and it trickles down to all sorts of other social phenomena. I don’t want to get bogged down in an ocean of numbers and data here (that’s in the book), but think of it this way: I’m 41, and when I was born, the gross debt-to-GDP ratio was about 35 percent. It’s roughly 103 percent now — and it keeps rising.
The boomers inherited a rich, dynamic country and have gradually bankrupted it. They habitually cut their own taxes and borrow money without any concern for future burdens. They’ve spent virtually all our money and assets on themselves and in the process have left a financial disaster for their children.
We used to have the finest infrastructure in the world. The American Society of Civil Engineers thinks there’s something like a $4 trillion deficit in infrastructure in deferred maintenance. It’s crumbling, and the boomers have allowed it to crumble. Our public education system has steadily degraded as well, forcing middle-class students to bury themselves in debt in order to get a college education.
Then of course there’s the issue of climate change, which they’ve done almost nothing to solve. But even if we want to be market-oriented about this, we can think of the climate as an asset, which has degraded over time thanks to the inaction and cowardice of the boomer generation. Now they didn’t start burning fossil fuels, but by the 1990s the science was undeniable. And what did they do? Nothing.

Sean Illing

Why hasn’t this recklessness been checked by the political system? Is it as simple as the boomers took over and used power to enrich themselves without enough resistance from younger voters?

Bruce Gibney

Well, most of our problems have not been addressed because that would require higher taxes and therefore a sense of social obligation to our fellow citizens. But again, the boomers seem to have no appreciation for social solidarity.
But to answer your question more directly, the problem is that dealing with these problems has simply been irrelevant to the largest political class in the country — the boomers. There’s nothing conspiratorial about that. Politicians respond to the most important part of the electorate, and that’s been the boomers for decades. And it just so happens that the boomers are not socially inclined and have a ton of maladaptive personality characteristics.

Sean Illing

It’s interesting that Ronald Reagan is elected right around the time that boomers become a majority of the electorate. Reagan himself wasn’t a boomer, but it was boomers who put him into office. And this is when we get this wave of neoliberalism that essentially guts the public sector and attempts to privatize everything.

Bruce Gibney

Right. Starting with Reagan, we saw this national ethos which was basically the inverse of JFK’s “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.” This gets flipped on its head in a massive push for privatized gain and socialized risk for big banks and financial institutions. This has really been the dominant boomer economic theory, and it’s poisoned what’s left of our public institutions.

Sean Illing

So what’s your explanation for the awfulness of the boomers? What made them this way?

Bruce Gibney

I think there were a number of unusual influences, some of which won't be repeated, and some of which may have mutated over the years. I think the major factor is that the boomers grew up in a time of uninterrupted prosperity. And so they simply took it for granted. They assumed the economy would just grow three percent a year forever and that wages would go up every year and that there would always be a good job for everyone who wanted it.
This was a fantasy and the result of a spoiled generation assuming things would be easy and that no sacrifices would have to be made in order to preserve prosperity for future generations.

Sean Illing

I’ve always seen the boomers as a generational trust-fund baby: They inherited a country they had no part in building, failed to appreciate it, and seized on all the benefits while leaving nothing behind.

Bruce Gibney

I think that’s exactly right. They were born into great fortune and had a blast while they were on top. But what have they left behind?

Sean Illing

Something that doesn’t get discussed enough is how hostile so many of these boomers are to science. It’s not hard to connect this aversion to facts to some of these disastrous social policies.

Bruce Gibney

This is a generation that is dominated by feelings, not by facts. The irony is that boomers criticize millennials for being snowflakes, for being too driven by feelings. But the boomers are the first big feelings generation. They’re highly motivated by feelings and not persuaded by facts. And you can see this in their policies.
Take this whole fantasy about trickle-down economics. Maybe it was worth a shot, but it doesn’t work. We know it doesn’t work. The evidence is overwhelming. The experiment is over. And yet they’re still clinging to this dogma, and indeed the latest tax bill is the latest example of that.
Time after time, when facts collided with feelings, the boomers chose feelings.

Sean Illing

What’s the most egregious thing the boomers have done in your opinion?

Bruce Gibney

I'll give you something abstract and something concrete. On an abstract level, I think the worst thing they’ve done is destroy a sense of social solidarity, a sense of commitment to fellow citizens. That ethos is gone and it’s been replaced by a cult of individualism. It’s hard to overstate how damaging this is.
On a concrete level, their policies of under-investment and debt accumulation have made it very hard to deal with our most serious challenges going forward. Because we failed to confront things like infrastructure decay and climate change early on, they’ve only grown into bigger and more expensive problems. When something breaks, it’s a lot more expensive to fix than it would have been to just maintain it all along.

Sean Illing

So where does that leave us?

Bruce Gibney

In an impossible place. We’re going to have to make difficult choices between, say, saving Social Security and Medicare and saving arctic ice sheets. We'll have fewer and fewer resources to deal with these issues. And I actually think that over the next 100 years, absent some major technological innovation like de-carbonization, which is speculative at this point, these actions will actually just kill people.

Sean Illing

I hear you, man, and I’m with you on almost all of this, but I always return to a simple point: If millennials and Gen Xers actually voted in greater numbers, the boomers could’ve been booted out of power years ago.

Bruce Gibney

I think that’s fair. But given how large the boomer demographic is, it really wasn’t possible for millennials to unseat the boomers until a few years ago. And of course there are many issues with voting rights. But that’s not a complete excuse.
More than voting, though, millennials have to run for office because people have to be excited about the person they’re voting for. We need people in office with a different outlook, who see the world differently. Boomers don’t care about how the country will look in 30 or 40 years, but millennials do, and so those are the people we need in power.

Sean Illing

I guess the big question is, can we recover from this? Can we pay the bill the boomers left us?

Bruce Gibney

I think we can, but it’s imperative that we start sooner than later. After 2024 or so, it will get really hard to do anything meaningful. In fact, I think the choices might become so difficult that even fairly good people will get wrapped up in short-term self-interest.
So if we unseat the boomers from Congress, from state legislatures, and certainly from the presidency over the next three to seven years, then I think we can undo the damage. But that will require a much higher tax rate and a degree of social solidarity that the country hasn’t seen in over 50 years.
That will not be easy, and there’s no way around the fact that millennials will have to sacrifice in ways the boomers refused to sacrifice, but that’s where we are — and these are the choices we face.



The Legacy of Taft-Hartley

Seventy years ago, the Taft-Hartley Act ushered in “right-to-work” laws and imposed draconian restrictions on workers' rights. The labor movement still hasn’t recovered.
Labor leader David Dubinsky gives a speech against the Taft-Hartley bill on May 4, 1947. Kheel Center / Flickr
The current assault on workers’ rights and labor standards is unrelenting. Federal labor policy has been undermined by the Trump administration’s deregulatory fever and deference to low-road employer interests. In the states, the corporate-inspired attack on public sector unionism has spread from Wisconsin to Iowa and beyond. In January, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in Janus vs AFSCME, whose decision will almost certainly allow anti-union public employees to opt out of paying dues and, therefore, evade the costs of negotiating and administering collective bargaining contracts.
But while the ferocity and pace of this legislative and administrative assault is new, its motives and logic are not. Recent efforts to undermine the democratic and associational rights of public sector workers echo and mimic attacks on private sector workers that began seventy years ago, with the passage of the Taft-Hartley Act in June 1947.

The Law

Taft-Hartley capped a tumultuous decade and a half in US labor relations and labor law.
In 1933, three years into the Great Depression and a hundred days into his New Deal, Franklin Roosevelt signed the National Recovery Act, which sought to at once tightly regulate competition and protect workers’ rights. When the Supreme Court ruled the Recovery Act unconstitutional two years later, workers — encouraged by the law’s nod to collective bargaining — pressed for both union representation and legal clarity. Business, meanwhile, was suffering from competitive and political disarray, and at least some viewed labor legislation as a recovery strategy — hoping that bargained wages would bolster aggregate demand and rein in their low-wage (often Southern) competitors.
The result was the 1935 National Labor Relations Act (also known as the Wagner Act), which guaranteed private sector employees the right to organize, form unions, and bargain collectively. Initially, even Southern employers and legislators went along — not out of any love for organized labor, but because the exemption of agricultural and domestic workers from the act’s provisions seemed to ensure that “Labor’s Magna Carta” would be largely compatible with Jim Crow.
But this wait-and-see attitude quickly dissipated. Many employers began digging in against Wagner, arguing that the act’s prohibition of “unfair labor practices” trampled upon management rights and that its “closed shop” provision (which required all workers in a bargaining unit to join the union if a majority voted for one) delivered workers “into the hands of labor dictators.” Those who had hoped for labor peace and a demand-side economic boost were disappointed on both counts. And employers increasingly chafed at New Deal measures as the World War II boom erased the last vestiges of the Depression.
As importantly, the dramatic organizing success of the fledgling Congress of Industrial Organizations changed the calculus for business. Between 1935 and 1945, bolstered by new legal protections and a tight wartime labor market, union membership skyrocketed from 3.7 million (just over 10 percent of the labor force) to almost 15 million (over a third of the labor force).
The sharp expansion in worker organization represented a serious threat — not only to the managerial bottom line, but to capital’s hold on political power. Local police and employers routinely responded to organizing drives with brute force and violence. Business invoked wartime patriotism to try to blunt union gains and aspirations. And southern capitalists — increasingly seeing the labor movement as a threat to the racial order that might not be contained by Wagner Act’s occupational exemptions — adopted a posture of all-out opposition.
In the wake of dramatic gains in the 1946 elections (which saw the GOP pick up fifty-five House seats), congressional Republicans — now joined by the Democrats’ Southern caucus on most issues — took aim at the remnants of the New Deal. Postwar conservatives drew on the wartime experience, an inflationary and strike-ridden reconversion, and the political chill of the Cold War to contort the meaning of Roosevelt’s aspirational “Four Freedoms.”
“Returning Soldiers will want security,” the Ohio Chamber of Commerce argued in 1943, “but the good old-fashioned kind of American security — the security of opportunity.” Bridling at the logic that ran from the Four Freedoms to Roosevelt’s 1944 economic bill of rights, conservatives invoked a fifth freedom — the freedom of private enterprise — as their touchstone for the postwar era. On this score, the Wagner Act — and organized labor more broadly — was the first target.
The Taft-Hartley Act pushed for changes on three fronts. In an early manifestation of McCarthyism, the law required union officers under the National Labor Relations Board’s jurisdiction to submit anti-communist affidavits. It tipped the scales in labor disputes by dispensing with the expectation of management neutrality and prohibiting a range of “unfair labor practices” — including jurisdictional strikes, secondary boycotts or pickets, and wildcat strikes. And it opened the door for individual states to outlaw “union security” provisions (which required workers in unionized shops to join and pay dues to the union) through the passage of what became known as “right-to-work” (RTW) laws.
The law sailed through Congress, winning the support of virtually all GOP lawmakers in both chambers, 106 of 177 Democrats in the House, and 20 of 42 Democrats in the Senate. Truman vetoed the bill, but it was a gesture seen as little more than a “grandstand play for labor support” given his willingness to quash strikes in steel and coal the previous year. And Congress had the votes to easily override Truman’s veto. On June 23, 1947, Taft-Hartley became the law of the land.

The Fallout

In the long run, the anti-communist provision and the narrowing of union tactics had enormous implications for labor, both in places where it was weak and where it was well-established.
Some unions purged their ranks of radical voices (a tack that often traded dynamic leadership for the security of federal arbitration), and those that refused to do so often ended up in jurisdictional fragments — one independent of the CIO, the other ensconced in the new national labor relations infrastructure. The law’s ban on secondary boycotts and strikes undermined local solidarity, especially in metropolitan settings where smaller, place-based locals had historically engaged in mutual strategic and political support.
But the harshest blow — the invitation to pass right-to-work laws in the states — fell where labor was weakest. Within months, most Deep South states had RTW laws on the books. Ardent segregationists and civil rights leaders alike recognized that RTW was a way to maintain the color line in Jim Crow labor markets — “a whip to preserve the sharecropper wages,” as Martin Luther King put it.
Over the following decade, low-wage and lightly industrialized states in the Midwest and Mountain West followed suit (see map below). By 1960, nineteen states had passed RTW laws, and another four joined the list over the next half-century. In more recent years, ALEC and its allies have pressed the issue anew — adding Indiana and Michigan (2012), Wisconsin (2015), and West Virginia (2016) to the RTW column.
What have the consequences been? For unions and their members in the late 1940s, the answer was obvious. “Let’s get one thing clear from the start,” the California State Council of Retail Clerks told its members in 1948,
Taft-Hartley is aimed at you. It’s aimed at your wages, at your hours and working conditions, at your job security. Its target is your pocketbook — your standard of living. It strikes at you through your union — by crippling your right to organize and maintain a union of your own choosing — limiting your right to strike and picket and boycott — by choking your rights of free speech and free press. You used these rights to organize your own union, to fight for a better standard of living. You used them to win higher wages, shorter hours, better conditions on the job. Your union has been your chief weapon.
But if the retail clerks were sure RTW would deal a major anti-union blow, identifying and measuring the law’s consequences, especially over time, is a thornier task. State adoption of RTW is staggered across the last seventy years, and many other factors — business cycles, state demographics, worker characteristics, occupational and sectoral differences across states — come into play. It is important, in this respect, to both identify the key observable differences between RTW and non-RTW settings, and to isolate as best as possible the importance of RTW status or adoption in creating or sustaining those differences.
Over the long haul, the threat (or promise) of RTW laws revolved around three questions. Would they dampen or slow union growth? Would they, by undermining union power, lower wages and labor standards in RTW settings? Would they, as their proponents claimed, galvanize local economic and job growth by making RTW settings more attractive to new investors and footloose employers? Let’s take each of these in turn.

Right-to-Work and Union Density

Nationally, RTW — and the larger pushback against the New Deal of which it was a part — arrested the rise in union membership. In the long arc of union gains and losses across the last century (see graphic below), three junctures stand out: the Wagner Act’s passage in 1933, Taft-Hartley’s enactment in 1947, and the heavy losses stemming from trade and deindustrialization since the 1970s.
Behind those national numbers, unsurprisingly, RTW states boast lower union membership across this era. In part, this is a reflection of where they started. Until ALEC and its confederates started pressing RTW in Rust Belt states in recent years, the legislation had passed almost exclusively in settings where organized labor already claimed little economic or political purchase. Across the South, RTW went hand-in-hand with both Jim Crow labor markets and bottom-feeding economic development strategies, all of which contributed to the failure of the CIO’s “Operation Dixie” organizing drive in 1946 and 1947. In the Midwest and Mountain West, RTW locked in low levels of union density and slowed the growth of labor as a political force.
We only have good union membership data — by state and by sector — from the early 1980s on, but the pattern is pretty clear. In the visualizations of this data (below), the states are strung like pearls along each year — RTW states, red; others blue. The “box-and-whisker” for each year traces the variability across the states: the center point of each box is the median state; the top and bottom of the box mark off the seventy-fifth and twenty-fifth percentiles (the “interquartile range”); the top and bottom whiskers reach out to values that are no more than 1.5 times the interquartile range; outliers in the data fall beyond the whiskers.
With the exception of Nevada (an outlier due to historically strong union presence in the hotel and restaurant industry), the RTW states crowd the lower rungs of the state ranking — falling well below the national median in each year. The more modest membership levels are to be expected: RTW (which allows covered workers to ride free on the backs of dues-paying members) raises the costs of winning union elections, delivering benefits, and sustaining membership.
Still, this set of data is just a glimpse of the overall picture. Because it’s purely descriptive, it may capture differences — such as a local “taste” for union representation — that explain both RTW adoption and lower levels of membership. In order to isolate the impact of RTW, we need to control for other effects and variables, especially the mix of industries and workers across states.
When we do so, it is clear that enacting RTW, while not eroding the existing base of membership, certainly slows its growth, yielding dramatic dips in the level of expected organizing immediately after adoption, and steady and moderate declines thereafter.
Estimating the expected flow into union membership (based on sectoral growth and certification elections), David Ellwood and Glenn Fine observe a 5 to 10 percent reduction in membership due to RTW approval alone. Using microdata to isolate those private sector workers directly affected by RTW, Joe Davis and John Huston find that RTW decreases the likelihood of union membership by 8.2 to 8.9 percent. In the Midwest, Indiana (which passed a RTW law in 2012), Michigan (2013), and Wisconsin (2015) have all seen steeper membership losses than neighboring states.

Right-to-Work and Job Growth

RTW advocates love to argue that “compulsory unionism” kills jobs and slows economic growth, and that passing RTW — either because it introduces a genuine advantage for business or simply because it signals a “business-friendly” environment — is a reliable magnet for new investment.
But the timing and location of RTW makes it almost impossible to untangle the driving forces behind rates of economic growth or job creation. The economic histories and trajectories of, say, Minnesota and Mississippi since 1954 (when the latter passed its RTW law), are profoundly different, and it is folly to pin that difference — good or bad — on one detail of state labor law.
In order to identify a link between RTW status and state prosperity or job growth, one would have to carefully control for a range of other factors, over a long and complicated economic history. Robust job growth in the Sun Belt after 1950, for example, is just as likely to be stoked by the spread of air-conditioning as the enactment of RTW. It would by silly, by the same token, to attribute recent job growth in Texas or North Dakota (both RTW states) to anything but the fracking boom.
Indeed, the only credible measure of such an effect would have to narrow its focus to job growth in mobile firms and industries (ones that are likely and able to relocate in response to “business-friendly” policies) in which wages are an important cost of doing business.
What does this literature tell us? A recent study of RTW and manufacturing observes such wide variation in employment growth that the only “reasonable interpretation” is that RTW has little effect. A report from a pro-RTW think tank examines employment trends in the ten states that adopted RTW since 1950, seeing net growth in five (Mississippi, South Carolina, Wyoming, Idaho, and Texas) and net declines in the other five (Kansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Utah, and Oklahoma). A careful study of employment effects in Oklahoma (comparing Oklahoma to the weighted average of non-RTW states that closely match Oklahoma in pre-2001 trends) finds no RTW impact on job growth. Recent work by the Economic Policy Institute identifies no clear relationship between RTW status and job growth across the states — and significant disadvantages for RTW states looking to attract higher-wage, new economy jobs.

Right-to-Work and Wages

There are two mechanisms that boost workers’ bargaining power and, consequently, their capacity to raise wages and better their working conditions. The first is organization. Labor unions deliver a reliable wage and benefit premium for organized workers (especially low- and middle-wage workers), they set local wage standards that help nonunion workers, and they advocate for regulatory and labor standards that raise the floor for all workers.
The second is full employment. “When labor markets are tight,” Dean Baker and Jared Bernstein explain, “the benefits of growth are more likely to flow to the majority of working people.” The evidence for this spans the last century — from the “arsenal of democracy” in the 1940s (when there was a shortage of workers and union organization was near its peak), through the heyday of postwar growth (when union power and robust employment ensured that workers shared in productivity gains) to the economic boom of the 1990s (when the US economy approached full employment and labor organization was weak).
Taft-Hartley, which has dampened labor organization in RTW states while making no measurable contribution to state prosperity or job growth, undermines both worker organization and full employment.“It’s aimed at your wages,” as the California Retail Clerks observed in 1948, “at your hours and working conditions, at your job security.”
This is evident in the figure below, a boxplot of wages in RTW and non-RTW states since the late 1970s. As with the earlier graphic of union density, we see wide variation across the states, with the RTW states dropping off the bottom of the scale. The wage gap between RTW states and the rest is perhaps most pronounced for men and women at the median, sixtieth, and seventieth wage percentiles (a wage range, in 2015 dollars, that runs from about $15 per hour to $30/hour).
The wage measure in the graphic above is purely descriptive, making no allowance for other differences across the states. States with RTW laws, after all, are often deeply invested in other policies — fiscal austerity, underinvestment in education, meager social policies — that depress wages.
In order to isolate the effect of RTW laws, economists at the Economic Policy Institute (a 2011 study by Elise Gould and Heidi Sherholz, updated by Gould and Will Kimball in 2015) control for an array of individual (education and employment status) and state variables (cost of living, unemployment rate), and find that wages in RTW states are a little over 3 percent lower than in non-RTW states — a $1500 deficit for a typical full-time worker.
That wage penalty is compounded by the fact that, in the American context, much more than wages are at stake at the bargaining table. The compensation penalty, factoring in lower-rates of job-based health and retirement coverage, is even wider.

A Pro-Capital Policy

By any reasonable measure, Taft-Hartley’s provisions run roughshod over basic democratic principles and constitutional rights to free speech and free association. And they seek to defang the one institution — organized labor — that has the willingness and the capacity to protect those rights for working men and women.
“Right to work,” the claims of its champions aside, is not about liberty or prosperity. It’s a pro-capital policy that saps or breaks worker organizations while offering no discernible boost to job growth or business investment.
“This high-sounding label,” as Martin Luther King observed in 1961, “does not mean what it says. It is a dishonest twisting of words with the aim of making a vicious law sound like a good law. It is a travesty on the true meaning of ‘right.’ This so-called ‘right-to-work’ law provides no ‘rights’ and it provides no ‘work.’ It is instead a law to rob us of our civil rights and job rights.”
That’s the true legacy of Taft-Hartley.

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